Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country and the continent’s largest oil exporter. Nigeria has never had it so bad since the return of democracy in 1998. A militant uprising in the majority Christian southern delta and a Taliban style insurgency in the Muslim North. In the middle of it is the city of Jos in central Plateau state with Muslim and Christian groups coordinating deadly attacks on each other. 13 people were reported killed yesterday in the latest wave of violence to sweep through the city. This is the third major incident of violence in less than three weeks with the Federal Government in Abuja totally clueless on how to stop the fighting in a city once regarded as Nigeria’s tourism capital. The Nigerian Army, fresh from confronting militants in the Southern delta has been brought in yet again to contain the violence in Jos.
Islamic militants in the far North known as the Boko Haram have coordinated almost daily attacks on Police and Army soldiers in the North-eastern state of Borno bordering Niger Republic. The Boko Haram has embarked on almost daily slaying of security forces in Borno state. The Boko Haram is a renegade group of Islamic devotees that abhors western education and once attempted a Taliban style takeover of the Northern state of Yobe in 2004. Security forces were brought in to quell the insurgency with several of their fighters either killed or arrested. The group continued with its attacks on Police posts and the security forces. The Nigerian authorities didn’t look much into the structure of the group, funding, ideology or possible connections with outside groups. They were simply branded as criminals by the Nigerian security operatives and assumed to have been crushed or defeated. Over 700 lives were lost in renewed confrontation that ensured between the Boko Haram and Nigerian security operatives in 2009 after they regrouped and went on rampage, destroying police and customs posts across the Northern states. The group’s leader, Mohammed Yusuf in an interview with a local newspaper said the group wanted nothing other than the overthrow of democracy and the imposition of the strict Islamic Sharia law across the country. Mohammed Yusuf was captured and subsequently executed while in Police custody. Officially, he was killed while trying to escape. His execution while in police custody appears to be the motivation behind recent wave of attacks on the Police and Army across the northern states as revenge for the execution of their leader.
The city of Jos has had its own share of Boko Haram violence. Bombs went off in at least eight different locations in the city on Christmas Eve killing more than 80 People. Within 24 hours of the bombings, the Boko Haram posted a video on the internet claiming responsibility. Jos is fast becoming to the rest of Nigeria what the Waziristan is to Pakistan- a rallying point for fundamentalist Islam. With the Christmas day bombings in Jos, the Boko Haram has signified its intention to take up the responsibility of defending the rights of Muslims in trouble ridden Jos. In the video in which it claimed responsibility for the Christmas Eve blasts, the group spoke about its intention to fight for the rights of Muslims not only in Jos which it renamed Suldaniyya, but also in other parts of the country where its claims Muslims are unfairly treated.
The South of Nigeria is also in the throes of another insurgency, this time between the Security forces and Militants in the oil rich delta fighting for greater control of the regions oil wealth. Oil pipelines are often blown up and foreign oil workers kidnapped and held for ransom. An Amnesty Programme introduced by Nigeria’s late President Umaru Yar’adua was thought to have finally ended the violence in the region but the kidnappings and bombings have persisted despite the Amnesty programme.
Pakistan just like Nigeria is a former British colony. Pakistan has about the same size and population as Nigeria and like Nigeria is a Military Power in South Asia. Both countries are also regular contributors to UN peace keeping operations around the world. Economically Pakistan is South Asia’s second largest economy after India. Nigeria is Africa’s second largest Economy after South Africa. Both countries have had interludes of Military regimes resulting in very weak administrative and democratic institutions. Both run a Federal system of Government with very high level corruption and bureaucracy. Both countries also have high poverty and unemployment rates. Pakistan like Nigeria has had its own problems with fundamentalist Islam. More than 95% of Pakistanis are Muslim compared with Nigeria’s 50%. More than 95% of Nigeria’s Muslims however reside in the Northern part of the country which like Pakistan’s North-West region is currently embroiled in fundamentalist violence. Pakistan just like Nigeria has managed to keep itself in our daily news headlines due to the conflict in the North-West region of the country
The fundamentalist violence in both Nigeria and Pakistan has similar origins though that of Pakistan appears to be in a more advanced stage. The insurgency in Pakistan is restricted to the federally administered tribal areas in the North-West of the country and close to the border with Afghanistan. Pakistani and Al-Qaeda fighters with the help of foreign fighters from Uzbekistan and other neighbouring countries have declared war on the central government in Islamabad. These fighters have similar ideology and motive as the ones in Northern Nigeria. They want the imposition of the strict Islamic Sharia law in the areas they occupy. Just like the American war on terror and the invasion of Afghanistan has provided the perfect opportunity for the Militants in Pakistan to embark on their violent rage, the situation in Jos is creating the same kind of effect in Northern Nigeria. Muslims in Nigeria’s north are beginning to see the conflict in Jos as an obligation to fight in solidarity with Muslims in Jos. The violence though coated with political and tribal undertones has a religious outlook. Muslims from Northern Nigeria are at war with the local Christian indigenes who regard the Muslims as settlers. The Nigerian security operatives though unable to contain the insurgency have been able to establish that most of the fighters participating in the violence in Jos are outsiders from neighbouring Northern states and from nearby countries like Niger and Chad, just as is the case in Pakistan- fuelled by the involvement of foreign fighters from border countries.
The situation in Pakistan is like a glance into the future of the conflict in Nigeria -an advanced Nigeria if you like. Pakistan in its current state provides a picture of where Nigeria is headed in a few years to come if the violence is allowed to continue unabated. Both countries present similar challenges-the presence of a weak central government unable to exert control. Almost all of Nigeria's northern states practise Sharia law, same with Pakistan which allows Sharia Law in Parts of its troubled North-West. With Al-Qaeda gaining ground in North Africa including Mali and Mauritania and the increasing influx of foreign fighters from Chad and Niger republics, it appears Nigeria is only a few years away from a full blown Pakistan. This Pakistan outlook for Nigeria hasn’t taken into account the insurgency in Nigeria’s southern Delta which is where Nigeria produces all of its oil. Nigeria is going to be a hotbed of even greater violence in the nearest future no doubt but the big question is if Nigeria will pose a bigger security challenge than Pakistan. The signs in the affirmative are very vivid.
Both Pakistan and Nigeria are key US allies. Islamabad is a key ally in Washington’s war on terror and in the military offensive to dislodge the Taliban in nearby Afghanistan. Nigeria is Africa’s top oil producer and wields both Military and political influence on the continent. Both Nigeria and Pakistan are regional economic powers and both are members of the Next eleven (or N-11) group of economies with a very promising forecast for investment and economic growth. Both countries have very serious security challenges which threaten their bright economic outlook. If the situation in Nigeria is allowed to degenerate to that of Pakistan’s, it will be impossible to rule out US military involvement in the nearest future as is already the case in Pakistan. A repeat of Pakistan in Nigeria will not only threaten US oil supplies from that country and will risk plunging the whole continent into crisis and creating an impossible humanitarian situation for both the West African region and the rest of the continent. It is therefore imperative that the US provides Nigeria with adequate military support in the form of training, logistics and hardware to grapple with this looming Pakistani scenario on the African continent. Greater accountability must also be demanded from the Federal Government in Abuja in areas such as the spending of Nigeria’s oil wealth and the Fight against corruption. Poverty and unemployment must be reduced if the war against terror is going to be won in Nigeria. Nigeria must not be allowed to go down the Pakistan road.
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